1 year ago
On a date
8 Aug 16’
HALF-TIME REPORT ON 2016 INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON
After two years of deficit rainfall in India all eyes were on this year’s monsoon to bring adequate moisture to the sub-continent, boosting crop production and the economy. As we pass the half-way point of the four-month monsoon season it seems an opportune time to assess the current situation.
In 2014 and 2015, June to September rainfall, averaged across all of India, fell below the long-term average by 12 and 14%, respectively: the fourth case of two consecutive deficient monsoons in 115 years of observations. Historically, Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has varied in concert with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with deficit rainfall experienced in El Niño years, and excess in La Niña. Therefore, the recent dry conditions have been linked to the large El Niño recently experienced in the Pacific Ocean.
At the start of the 2016 season, expectations were of a normal or excessive rainfall total given the decline of El Niño and the prospect of a La Niña developing. In both its initial and updated forecasts the Indian Meteorological Department estimated rainfall to be above normal at 106% of the long-term average. At the time of writing cumulative rainfall is 0.5% above normal for this stage in the season. After a poor June, rainfall picked up in July bringing the cumulative total in line with the average. However, the national average masks potentially important regional variations. Rainfall in the Western state of Gujarat and Rajasthan is well below average for this time of year, whereas the central states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have experienced an excess with reports of flooding damaging crops. So plenty of reasons to follow progress during the second half of the season.
Sources: Monsoon Online
Posted 1 year ago by admin