11 months ago
On a date
22 Aug 16’
CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF FRENCH FLOODS IN 2016
Attribution science is the science of determining the causes of unusual climate trends and climate-related events. Extreme events are a fundamental characteristic of our planet’s variable climate. However, the degree to which extreme events are being influenced by anthropogenic climate change, i.e. the direct effects of human-driven emissions of greenhouse gases, is important to know for policy and decision making, as well as for future research and investment.
Attribution science is being applied to single events, such as the drought of 2012 in Russia which caused a 25% reduction in grain harvest that year – and sharp rises in wheat and food prices globally, to determine how the probability of such events has changed. Global climate model simulations can now be run within days of an event with and without human influence on climate to see how the odds of that particular event have changed.
A recent study by Climate Central into the extreme rainfall in France in May of 2016 concludes that global warming increased the likelihood of the heavy rains associated with the May 29 – 31 event in both the Seine and the Loire River basins. The research teams found that an event like this is now expected to occur roughly 80 percent more often due to climate change than it was in the past for the Seine River Basin.
For the Loire River Basin, the team found that an event like this is now expected roughly 90 percent more often due to climate change than it was in the past. This is an important finding for the agriculture sector, given the impact of the heavy rain and low sunshine amounts in Spring 2016 on French wheat harvests – with the latest pre-harvest forecast production of 29.8 million tonnes from this year’s French harvest, down 25-30% from a record 40.9 million in 2015. It also shows the importance of taking climate change into account in assessing the frequency of extreme events when devising risk-management and risk-transfer mechanisms.
Posted 11 months ago by admin